第 1/2 張圖片
End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites
狀況：
“Minimal wear to the lower front cover”
運費：
所在地：Oakland, California, 美國
送達日期：
估計於 5月30日, 四至 6月6日, 四之間送達 運送地點 43230
退貨：
保障：
請參閱物品說明或聯絡賣家以取得詳細資料。閱覽全部詳情查看保障詳情
（不符合「eBay 買家保障方案」資格）
賣家必須承擔此刊登物品的所有責任。
eBay 物品編號：226117120454
物品細節
- 物品狀況
- 很好
- 賣家備註
- “Minimal wear to the lower front cover”
- Personalize
- No
- Signed
- No
- Ex Libris
- No
- Personalized
- No
- Inscribed
- No
- Vintage
- No
- ISBN
- 9780593490501
- Book Title
- End Times : Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration
- Item Length
- 9.5in
- Publisher
- Penguin Publishing Group
- Publication Year
- 2023
- Format
- Hardcover
- Language
- English
- Item Height
- 1.2in
- Genre
- Education, History, Social Science, Political Science
- Topic
- Social Classes & Economic Disparity, Future Studies, History & Theory, Curricula, Anthropology / Cultural & Social, American Government / General, Political Ideologies / Democracy, United States / General
- Item Width
- 6.3in
- Item Weight
- 20.5 Oz
- Number of Pages
- 368 Pages
關於產品
Product Information
"Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." --Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the groundbreaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for more than a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States. Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why. The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it's a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin's models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. As cliodynamics shows us, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. That is only one possible end time, and the choice is up to us, but the hour grows late.
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Penguin Publishing Group
ISBN-10
0593490509
ISBN-13
9780593490501
eBay Product ID (ePID)
9058362792
Product Key Features
Book Title
End Times : Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration
Format
Hardcover
Language
English
Topic
Social Classes & Economic Disparity, Future Studies, History & Theory, Curricula, Anthropology / Cultural & Social, American Government / General, Political Ideologies / Democracy, United States / General
Publication Year
2023
Genre
Education, History, Social Science, Political Science
Number of Pages
368 Pages
Dimensions
Item Length
9.5in
Item Height
1.2in
Item Width
6.3in
Item Weight
20.5 Oz
Additional Product Features
Lc Classification Number
Jk1726.T87 2023
Reviews
"Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "' History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision, "Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." -- Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision, "Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." -- Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision, "In End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration , Mr. Turchin offers a lucid and elegant theory that is stable across time and place in the manner of natural laws and scientific findings." --Wall Street Journal "Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." -- Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Arguably the most comprehensive explanation so far of the current and ongoing crisis of American politics . . . End Times [is] required reading for all who are serious about saving or redeeming American democracy." --Salon "Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision "A pre-eminent digital-age seer . . . a great collected narrative of human hope and human failure." --Tim Adams, Observer "Extraordinary . . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work." --Niall Ferguson, Bloomberg "From the man who predicted the rise of Trump-or someone very like him-a remarkably clear, data-driven explanation of why societies fall into crisis, and how to engineer a soft landing." -- The Guardian Summer Reading, "Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." -- Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Arguably the most comprehensive explanation so far of the current and ongoing crisis of American politics . . . End Times [is] required reading for all who are serious about saving or redeeming American democracy." --Salon "Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision "A pre-eminent digital-age seer . . . a great collected narrative of human hope and human failure." --Tim Adams, Observer "Extraordinary . . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work." --Niall Ferguson, Bloomberg "From the man who predicted the rise of Trump-or someone very like him-a remarkably clear, data-driven explanation of why societies fall into crisis, and how to engineer a soft landing." -- The Guardian Summer Reading
Lccn
2022-044451
Intended Audience
Trade
賣家提供的物品說明
賣家必須承擔此刊登物品的所有責任。
eBay 物品編號：226117120454
運費與處理費
| 向 21ben12 購買符合條件的物品，運費全免。 |
物品所在地：
Oakland, California, 美國
運送地點
不丹, 中國台灣, 中國澳門, 中國香港, 丹麥, 乍德, 亞塞拜疆共和國, 亞美尼亞, 伯利茲, 佛得角群島, 保加利亞, 克羅地亞共和國, 冰島, 列支敦士登, 利比利亞, 剛果共和國, 剛果民主共和國, 加拿大, 加納, 加蓬共和國, 匈牙利, 南非, 南韓, 博茨瓦納, 卡塔爾, 印尼, 印度, 危地馬拉, 厄瓜多爾, 吉布提, 吉爾吉斯, 哈薩克, 哥倫比亞, 哥斯達黎加, 喀麥隆, 土庫斯安德凱科斯群島, 土庫曼, 土耳其, 圭亞那, 坦桑尼亞, 埃及, 埃塞俄比亞, 基里巴斯, 塔吉克, 塞內加爾, 塞拉利昂, 塞浦路斯, 塞爾維亞, 塞舌爾, 墨西哥, 多哥, 多明尼加共和國, 奧地利, 孟加拉, 安哥拉, 安圭拉島, 安提瓜和巴布達, 安道爾, 寮國, 尼加拉瓜, 尼日利亞, 尼日爾, 尼泊爾, 巴哈馬, 巴基斯坦, 巴布亞新畿內亞, 巴拉圭, 巴拿馬, 巴林, 布基納法索, 布隆迪, 希臘, 幾內亞, 幾內亞比索, 德國, 意大利, 愛沙尼亞, 愛爾蘭, 所羅門群島, 拉脫維亞, 挪威, 捷克共和國, 摩洛哥, 摩爾多瓦, 摩納哥, 斐濟, 斯威士蘭, 斯洛伐克, 斯洛文尼亞, 斯里蘭卡, 新加坡, 日本, 智利, 柬埔寨, 格陵蘭, 格雷納達, 格魯吉亞, 梵蒂岡, 比利時, 毛里求斯, 汶萊, 沙特阿拉伯, 法國, 波斯尼亞和黑塞哥維那, 波蘭, 泰國, 津巴布韋, 洪都拉斯, 海地, 湯加, 澳洲, 烏干達, 烏拉圭, 烏茲別克, 牙買加, 特里尼達和多巴哥, 玻利維亞, 瑙魯, 瑞典, 瑞士, 瓦利斯和富圖納群島, 瓦努阿圖, 甘比亞, 百慕達群島, 盧旺達, 盧森堡, 直布羅陀, 科威特, 科特迪瓦（象牙海岸）, 秘魯, 突尼斯, 立陶宛, 約旦, 納米比亞, 紐西蘭, 羅馬尼亞, 美國, 聖基茨-尼維斯, 聖文森和格瑞那丁, 聖盧西亞, 聖馬力諾, 肯亞, 芬蘭, 英國, 茅利塔尼亞, 荷蘭, 莫桑比克, 菲律賓, 萊索托, 葡萄牙, 蒙古, 蒙特色拉特島, 薩爾瓦多, 蘇里南, 西班牙, 西薩摩亞, 貝寧, 贊比亞, 赤道幾內亞, 越南, 開曼群島, 阿拉伯聯合酋長國, 阿曼, 阿根廷, 阿爾及利亞, 阿爾巴尼亞, 阿魯巴, 馬來西亞, 馬其頓, 馬拉維, 馬爾代夫, 馬耳他, 馬達加斯加, 馬里, 黎巴嫩, 黑山
排除：
中國, 中非共和國, 也門, 以色列, 伊拉克, 俄羅斯聯邦, 利比亞, 厄立特里亞, 委內瑞拉, 巴貝多, 新喀里多尼亞, 法屬圭亞那, 法屬玻里尼西亞, 烏克蘭, 瓜德羅普島, 留尼汪島, 紐埃, 阿富汗, 馬提尼克島
| 運費與處理費 | 運送地點 | 運送方式 | 運送*查看送達備註 |
|---|---|---|---|
| US $4.87（大約 HK$ 38.05） | 美國 | 經濟運送方式 (USPS Media MailTM) | 估計於 5月30日, 四至 6月6日, 四之間送達 運送地點 43230 |
| US $10.60（大約 HK$ 82.82） | 美國 | 特快運送方式 (USPS Priority Mail Padded Flat Rate Envelope®) | 估計於 5月29日, 三至 6月1日, 六之間送達 運送地點 43230 |
| 處理時間 |
|---|
| 通常會在收到所有款項後的 1 個工作日內發貨。 |
| 稅項 |
|---|
| 結賬時相關稅項可能適用。 進一步了解進一步了解為 eBay 購物繳稅。 |
物品編號 226117120454 的銷售稅
物品編號 226117120454 的銷售稅
賣家會對寄往以下各州的物品收取銷售稅：
| 州／省 | 銷售稅稅率 |
|---|
退貨政策
| 退貨政策說明 |
|---|
| 賣家不接受此物品的退貨。 |
賣家信用評價 （35）
t***u (52)- 買家留下的信用評價。
過去 1 個月
購買已獲認證
Thank you!
e***d (15)- 買家留下的信用評價。
過去 6 個月
購買已獲認證
Alles wie beschrieben. Nur die dünnwändige Verpackung hätte robuster sein sollen. Sie hat auf der langen Reise von der Westküste der USA nach Deutschland sichtbar gelitten. Das hätte auch das enthaltene Buch beschädigen können; was aber glücklicherweise nicht geschehen ist.
0***l (370)- 買家留下的信用評價。
過去 6 個月
購買已獲認證
Fast, well packaged, as described.